After handing out some early overlay, DraftKings reduced the guarantees on some of their college football afternoon contests this week. Perhaps emboldened by solid recent numbers, the $3 buy-in Redshirt contest has been bumped to $140,000 and the $27 buy-in Tailgate to $125,000. The Big 10-heavy slate features a slew of contests that are expected to be low-scoring.
As mentioned, high-scoring games look to be few and far between this week compared to previous weeks, but Bowling Green/Massachusetts stands out with a total of 79.
Frohnapfel's been quietly productive so far this year for the Minutemen and he tallied 363 yards and three TDs last week against FIU. He's had a couple of rough outings this year that drag his fantasy average down but one was against Notre Dame's capable defense. Bowling Green is 118th in pass yards allowed, and best of all, both teams play at a top-15 pace, so Frohnapfel will have his chances.
Hold your nose for this one, but hear me out. Yes, Hackenberg has been about as bad as possible this year. First, the total is 54.5 so there should be more scoring than your typical Penn State snoozer. Second, the Nittany Lions are playing WAY up in pace against an Indiana team that's seventh in the nation at 87.5 plays per game. Finally, Indiana is the perfect “get right” team for a QB to face as only one team (my Huskers) allows more passing yards per game than the ghastly 337.4 surrendered by the Hoosiers.
This could definitely blow up in my face, but Hackenberg should be a sneaky play.
Arizona QB Anu Solomon is coming off of a concussion, and with the Wildcats sitting at -10 at home against woeful Oregon State, there isn't much reason for the coaching staff to risk further damage to the star QB.
Enter Wilson, whose already sizable role in the offense should expand further. The Beavers' run defense is among the worst in the nation, ranking 97th in yards per attempt allowed at 4.75. I watched Stanford truck these guys for 6.8 yards a pop a couple of weeks ago, and Wilson should have a field day.
Bowling Green is known for a prolific passing offense, but Greene has had a nice role in the attack as well of late, putting up 119 and 145 yards in the past two games. He should have plenty of room to run against a Massachusetts run defense that's allowed 5.61 yards per rush this year – only six teams have been worse.
With so many points expected to be scored in this game, it would be surprising if Greene didn't have a hand in some of them as the top back on a team favored by two touchdowns.
I tried banking on a Jones breakout a few weeks ago, but I was a bit early. Jones finally took the job by the horns, ripping off 157 yards and two TDs against Michigan State's nasty defense after consecutive weeks of six carries.
Unfortunately, the coaching staff seems to have woken up the fact that Jones is their most talented player at the worst time, with another not-so-great match-up on tap with Minnesota. On the bright side, few will be on him because of the game's low total of 45.5, and there's still considerable upside at this reduced price against a Gophers squad that did allow Justin Jackson to rush for 120 on 20 carries last week.
Top Wide Receivers
The dumpster fire in Texas continues to rage, with locker room cohesion now falling apart to match the horrendous on-field product. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has to be licking his lips, and though the Sooners are heavy favorites, Stoops would likely delight at the opportunity to run it up on the rival Longhorns.
Shepard is by far the cheapest he's been all season, and he offers a nice buy-low spot coming off of a two-catch game against West Virginia. He's still the best receiver on the team, and a Texas team that's 119th in passing yards allowed per game offers a nice bounce back spot.
Lazard, a former top-50 recruit, is easily the most talented player the Cyclones have and he'll be needed in a big way if his team is going to keep this close against Texas Tech in what's expected to be a shootout – the total is 73.5.
The Red Raiders have a bottom-20 pass defense on both a per play basis and total yards allowed. Lazard offers significant upside at a discounted price.
Texas Tech has the nation's most prolific passing offense, averaging 423.8 yards per game under coach Kliff Kingsbury's air raid offense, which he learned while quarterbacking the Red Raiders under Mike Leach.
No. 2 receiver Devin Lauderdale left last week's game with an injury, opening up playing time for young receivers Austin and Brown, who responded with productive games in the shootout with TCU. If Lauderdale sits – he's currently listed as out on DraftKings, though Kingsbury hasn't offered a recent update – both of these guys make fine punt plays that will save you significant money to spend elsewhere.